SpaceX

Last updated: Friday 16 October 2026 ~04:00 (Europe/Zurich)

Ops 16 Oct ~04:00: CRS-35 DOCKED Harmony zenith 10:27 a.m. EDT Thu 15 (16:27 Zurich) — >6,300 lb; final IROSA pair; return mid-Nov CA splash (NASA; SpaceX). USSF-481 SUCCESS SLC-4E 5:01 p.m. PDT Thu 15 (= 02:01 Fri 16 Zurich) — B1081 28th → OCISLY ~8.5 min; classified; TH-2; 114th Falcon 9 of 2026 (SFN; Space.com). Morgan Stanley (Jonas): Flight 15 (~1 month) biggest reusability test since IPO; Flight 16 YE potentially bigger; PT $300 held; V3 capacity framing (Advanced Television). Thu close SPCX $148.62 (−2.33% / −$3.54) (exa/markets). FAA PEIS / Starlink Communities / Flight 15 soft CADENA 8 Nov / unlock 24 Oct / Bandwagon-5 Mon 19 held.

Ops 15 Oct ~04:00: FAA PEIS scoping opened Wed 14 Oct (Federal Register NOI) on SpaceX’s Starbase expansion: Phase 1 up to 100 launches / 200 landings per year (any day/time); Phase 2 up to 456 launches / 912 landings (weekdays); plus expanded Starship landing/expenditure areas. Current cap 25/yr. Scoping meetings 17–19 Nov (Brownsville / virtual / Port Isabel); comments close 30 Nov (Docket FAA-2026-12808). NOI is a review start, not an approval (FAA; Federal Register). Ship 40 vertical in Starbase Megabay beside three new ships — SpaceX: first data on flown heatshield, Raptors, avionics (Space.com). Starlink for Communities live (host one kit; neighbours buy hour/day/week/month passes; Starlink bills; pricing + host share not published) (Not a Tesla App). Grok Voice 3.0 (x.ai Wed 14): Starlink call centres ~20,000 calls/day, ~70% resolved with no human (x.ai). Starshield: Ukrainian officials (Reuters/FT via The Verge) say a new cap cuts service to terminals above ~100 mph; Musk: Starshield speed/usage limits “decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS”; Starlink commercial use limited to civilian/defensive (The Verge) — political framing omitted. CRS-35 docking ahead Thu 15 11:00 a.m. EDT (17:00 Zurich); Crew-12 briefing 3:30 p.m. EDT (21:30 Zurich). Next Falcon: USSF-481 SLC-4E Thu 15 19:44–23:44 ET (01:44 Fri 16 Zurich); Bandwagon-5 Mon 19 06:30 ET (12:30 Zurich); Starlink Tue 20 18:14 ET (00:14 Wed 21 Zurich) and Sat 24 01:29 ET (07:29 Zurich) (SpaceX launches). Wed close SPCX $152.16 (−2.80% / −$4.38; macro/AI risk-off after CPI) (exa/markets). Flight 15 soft / CADENA 8 Nov; unlock 24 Oct held.

Ops 14 Oct ~04:00: CRS-35 SUCCESS Tue 13 Oct 6:33 a.m. EDT (10:33 UTC / 12:33 Zurich) SLC-40 — Cargo Dragon C211 4th; booster B1096 8th → LZ-40 (~7.5 min); >6,300 lb incl. final IROSA pair; docks Harmony zenith Thu 15 ~11:00 a.m. ET held (SpaceX; SFN). Starlink 15-25 / T1 84 / Flight 15 soft 4–6 weeks / CADENA 8 Nov held. Tue close SPCX $156.59 (−4.18%) (exa/markets). Next unlock 24 Oct.

Ops 13 Oct ~04:00: Starlink 15-25 SUCCESS Mon 12 Oct 5:28 p.m. PDT (00:28 UTC / 02:28 Tue Zurich) SLC-4E — 27 V2 Mini Optimized; B1088 20th → OCISLY ~8.5 min (SFN; Next Spaceflight). CRS-35 still ahead Tue 13 6:33 a.m. ET (Zurich cut before launch). Flight 15 soft 4–6 weeks / pre-Thanksgiving restated (Teslarati); CADENA 8 Nov held. Mon close SPCX $163.42 (+0.52%) (exa/markets). T1TL-A / T1 84 / unlock 24 Oct held.

Ops 12 Oct ~04:00: Quiet Sunday after T1TL-A. Starlink 15-25 still ahead SpaceX window Mon 12 Oct 19:00–23:00 ET (23:00 UTC open) SLC-4E (SpaceX). CRS-35 Tue 13 6:33 a.m. ET held. Gap: Musk Sat 10 X Takeover — Flight 15 “hopefully 4–6 weeks,” ship-catch goal (aligns CADENA 8 Nov provisional) (TeslaNorth). Fri SPCX $162.59 (weekend); next unlock 24 Oct held.

Ops 11 Oct ~04:00: T1TL-A SUCCESS Sat 10 12:39 a.m. PT (09:39 Zurich) — 21 NG; B1103→LZ-4; T1 on-orbit 84 (SpaceX; SDA). Starlink 15-25 Mon 12 19:00–23:00 ET; CRS-35 Tue 13 held.

Ops 10 Oct ~04:00: T1TL-A NET Sat 10 Oct 12:39 a.m. PDT (09:39 Zurich), backup Sun 11 12:32 a.m. PT — still ahead at digest close (SpaceX; SFN 9 Oct). Starlink 15-25 → Mon 12 Oct 23:00 UTC (was 10 Oct) (SpaceNexus). CRS-35 gap fill: Tue 13 Oct 6:33 a.m. EDT / dock Thu 15 ~11 a.m. EDT (NASA). NSF Fri 9: Ship 42 third Massey’s cryo; S40 home 75 days; Flight 15 CADENA 8 Nov held; F16/SL30-1 provisional 10 Dec (NSF). Fri 9 close SPCX $162.59 (+1.26%) Day-120 unlock (exa/markets).

Ops 9 Oct ~04:00: Crew-12 SPLASH SUCCESS Thu 8 Oct 11:34 a.m. EDT (17:34 Zurich) Pacific off LA — Meir, Hathaway, Adenot (ESA), Fedyaev; 237 days; recovery shortly after; post-mission news conference Thu 15 Oct 3:30 p.m. EDT JSC (NASA release; NASA blog). T1TL-A waved off Thu 8 → NET Sat 10 Oct 12:29 a.m. PT (09:29 Zurich), backup Sun 11 12:32 a.m. PT; double checks + range deconfliction; rocket/payload healthy (SFN; The Grid Fin). Starship Flight 15 provisional NET 8 Nov (CADENA Ops Planning Thu 8 1400 UTC; was 19 Oct) — still no SpaceX NET (Wikipedia). Markets: Thu 8 close SPCX $160.63 (−4.16% / −$6.97) ahead of Fri 9 Day-120 unlock (exa/markets). Tom’s Hardware on FT $40B debt: ~360k Vera Rubin / ~5,000 NVL72 if full package to racks (context) (Tom’s Hardware).

Ops 8 Oct ~04:00: Crew-12 UNDOCKED Wed 7 Oct 8:05 a.m. EDT (14:05 Zurich) from Harmony space-facing port (hatch 6:05 a.m. EDT); ~27 h ride; splashdown ~Thu 8 Oct 11:34 a.m. EDT (17:34 Zurich) off California (NASA). Starlink Mobile FCC grant Tue 6 (US): 15,000 next-gen D2D sats + waiver to offer service without a ground-carrier lease; EchoStar bands (1695–1710, 2000–2020, 2180–2200, 1915–1920, 1995–2000 MHz) test-only until Step Two closes (sched. 30 Nov 2027); T-Mobile PCS G-block allowed; 2020–2025 MHz and some non-US requests deferred; SpaceX target ~150 Mbps/user vs ~4 Mbps on ~650-sat V1; FCC 7 Oct tees up more D2D spectrum (PCMag; SpaceNews). T1TL-A NET Thu 8 12:54 a.m. PT (09:54 Zurich) held at cut. Starship: Space.com 7 Oct — Scheiman (1 Oct): 39A “through the main construction… activation testing”; ≥1 more Starbase flight first; Artemis III Ship from 39A; provisional planning docs NET 19 Oct (Flight 15) / 30 Oct (Flight 16) — not SpaceX NETs (Space.com). Starlink India: VP Lauren Dreyer at IMC Wed 7 — 20 gateway sites built, India user data kept in India, “standing ready”; Musk: “being blocked by certain oligarchs” (Mint). Markets: Wed 7 close SPCX $167.60 (−2.51%; $165.65–$171.31) on $40B debt report + Fri 9 Day-120 unlock of up to 328.4M shares (next 328.4M 24 Oct; up to 1.3B two trading days after Q3; rest 8 Dec) (Investing.com; TipRanks). Susquehanna (Minervino) PT $173 from $144, Neutral; adj. EPS −$0.87 (2026) / −$0.40 (2027) (TipRanks). Colossus tenant Reflection AI confirmed (see xai.md).

Ops 7 Oct ~04:00: FT/Reuters/Bloomberg: SpaceX in early talks on ~$40B debt ($10B bank + $30B IG) for Nvidia chips, Apollo leading, Pimco in talks, 2027 close; SPCX −1.2% AH to $169.79 (close $171.92). Space Safety page: up to 100,000 Starlink + 1M Starmind; Nicolls: ~10-sat tight clusters, ~10 Tb/s intra-cluster (Teslarati). T1TL-A NET Thu 8 Oct 12:54 a.m. PT (09:54 Zurich), backup Fri 9 12:47 a.m. PT (SpaceX). Crew-12 undock Wed 7 8:05 a.m. EDT held (237 days). Aviation Week 7 Oct: ≥1 more Starbase Starship flight before LC-39A.

Ops 6 Oct ~04:00: SDA T1TL-A SCRUBBED Mon 5 — Falcon 9 auto abort just before T-0 at the 1:17 a.m. PDT (10:17 Zurich) window; SpaceX: “Vehicle and payload are in good health.” Tue 6 backup waived; SFN update 8:48 p.m. EDT Mon (02:48 Zurich Tue): next opportunity Thursday 8 Oct, no cause given; B1103 still planned for LZ-4 (SFN; TeslaNorth). Crew-12 MOVED: undock NET Wed 7 Oct 8:05 a.m. EDT (1205 UTC / 14:05 Zurich); splashdown ~Thu 8 Oct 11:34 a.m. EDT (17:34 Zurich) off California (was 1:05 a.m. / ~11:25 a.m.); post-return ISS briefing covers Crew-12 + CRS-35 (NASA 5 Oct). Markets: Mon 5 close SPCX $171.09 (+7.6%, highest since mid-June) after Morgan Stanley (Adam Jonas) Sunday note — Overweight / $300; ~30× 2028 EV/EBIT but ~0.3× growth-adjusted; space+connectivity ~$127/share so AI ≈ $32; recent neocloud contracts est. $30–50/W vs Visible Alpha $17.60/W on 4.1 GW; Flight 15 ship catch “could be the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO”; MS co-managed a SpaceX offering (CNBC; Benzinga). Correction: Fri 2 Oct close $158.96 (not $158.98). Flight 15: still no SpaceX NET (MS “late Oct or early Nov” is analyst). Starlink: 50% Residential discount for Cameron County / Rio Grande Valley addresses, announced Mon 5; ≥6 months’ notice before changes (TeslaNorth). Starlink 15-25 10 Oct held.

Ops 5 Oct ~04:00: SDA T1TL-A still ahead at cut — Falcon 9 B1103 (6th) SLC-4E 1:17 a.m. PDT Mon 5 (0817 UTC / 10:17 Zurich), 21 NG sats delivered VSFB 28 Sep, LZ-4; backup Tue 6 (SFN 4 Oct). Crew-12 undock NET Wed 7 Oct 1:05 a.m. EDT held (no new NASA update). Flight 15 still no SpaceX NET. Starlink Communities beta (shared-dish passes) reported by Teslarati/KeepTrack this week — secondary, not on starlink.com verified here. Musk Sun 4: SpaceXAI → SpaceXSI rename “we will make that change” (see xai.md).

Ops 4 Oct ~04:00: Flight 14 ORBIT SUCCESS Mon 28 held. Crew-13 SUCCESS Thu 1 held (dock 7:05 p.m. EDT; hatch 9:19 p.m. EDT). Crew-12 MOVED: undock NET Wed 7 Oct 1:05 a.m. EDT / splash ~Thu 8 Oct 11:25 a.m. EDT CA (was as early as Mon 5); Sun 4 Meir→Dubrov 10:20 a.m. EDT on (NASA 3 Oct). Next Falcon: SDA T1TL-A NET Mon 5 Oct ~0817 UTC SLC-4E (21 NG; LZ-4) (SpaceX). Transporter-18 / NROL-97 SUCCESS held. Starlink 15-25 → 10 Oct held. Fri 2 Oct close SPCX $158.98 held (weekend).

SpaceX is a public company (Nasdaq: SPCX) after an IPO that priced at $135.00 per Class A share and began trading 12 June 2026; the offering closed 15 June 2026 with 638,888,888 shares including the greenshoe and approximately $85.7 billion gross proceeds to the company (SpaceX IR, 15 June 2026). Q2 2026 was the first earnings report as a public company (call 4 August 2026).

Company snapshot (business, Q2 2026)

Status

Company guidance / forward statements (not facts):

• CFO Bret Johnsen: trajectory to $100 billion ARR by December 2026, including Cursor, based on expected December revenue run-rate. Already contracted $6.7 billion additional cloud-services revenue over a six-month period ramping from October 2026 (CNBC; Q2 call).
• Musk: internal $1 trillion revenue target moved from 2031 to 2030 (Q2 call; SpaceNews).
• IPO priced the company at about $1.77 trillion at $135/share (widely reported from the S-1/A share count; not re-verified here as a live market cap). Shares opened at $150 on 12 June 2026 and closed $125.33 on 4 August 2026, then 16% below the open as of that day’s close (CNBC). Live 22 August 2026 market cap: not pulled for this file — unconfirmed.

xAI merged into SpaceX in February 2026 (CNBC). Cursor acquisition (~$60 billion, expected Q3 close) is a pending regulatory matter; Musk declined product-roadmap detail on the call (CNBC). Terafab (East Texas chip plant with Tesla/Intel) is in public-hearing materials at up to $119 billion full buildout — not a committed SpaceX capex figure.

Next milestone

• Q3 2026 earnings (date unconfirmed as of 22 Aug).
• Cursor close (Musk: “pretty close”; CNBC: expected Q3).
• Starship Flight 14 and Crew-13 / CRS-35 (see divisions). Roman Falcon Heavy flown 30 Aug.

Competition (commercial)

SpaceX’s own prospectus named more than 20 Starlink competitors including Amazon, Blue Origin, Viasat, AT&T and T-Mobile; some are also launch customers (CNBC). Launch-market structure is covered under Falcon. Connectivity competitors under Starlink.

Key executives whose statements matter

Lee Echerd (SpaceX senior mission manager) briefed CRS-34 Dragon recertification in May 2026 (SpaceNews).

Sources

• SpaceX IR IPO close, 15 June 2026
• CNBC Q2 2026 live updates, 4 Aug 2026
• Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool / Yahoo)
• SpaceNews on Q2 / Flight 14, 4 Aug 2026
• CNBC Shotwell IPO profile, 16 June 2026

Starship / Super Heavy

HLS / Moon and Mars are covered here because they are Starship vehicle programs, not separate operating companies.

Status (August 2026)

Fourteen integrated flight tests have flown, all from Starbase, Texas. Flight 14 (28 Sep 2026) is the first to reach a stable orbit.

Confirmed flights (compiled from NASASpaceflight, SpaceNews, Space.com, Ars Technica, and the public flight log; dates UTC unless noted):

Super Heavy tower catches confirmed: three — Flights 5, 7, and 8. Two of those used a flown booster (Flight 9 reused B14 but did not catch; Flight 11 reused B15 with a gulf splashdown). No ship (upper-stage) catch has been attempted. Block 3 / Raptor 3 boosters have not yet been caught; Flights 12 and 13 both lost the booster on gulf landing attempts (Ars Technica, 25 Jul 2026; NASASpaceflight, 23/24 Jul 2026; SpaceNews Flight 13).

2026 cadence so far: three Starship flights (12, 13, and 14), vs five in 2025 and four in 2024. A July 16 Flight 13 attempt aborted at T-0 when Raptor LOX turbopumps (moisture) kept engines from starting; engines were swapped and the stack flew 24 July (NASASpaceflight; SpaceNews).

Ship 40 recovery: After Flight 13 the ship floated and was towed. On 18 August 2026 SpaceX said teams had it just off Christmas Island for inspection in calmer water (SpaceNews, ~20 Aug 2026). On 27 August 2026 SpaceX posted that the 52 m upper stage had been loaded onto a semi-submersible (trade press names Forte) for a several-month haul back to Starbase. Teams “collected heatshield samples and gained vital insight into how the vehicle handled reentry with improvements now planned on future vehicles” (Space.com, 27 Aug 2026; SpaceX X). ABC News Australia, 28 Aug: Forte departed Christmas Island Friday afternoon with S40 on deck, bound for Texas; ABC says ~20,000 km and several weeks — keep SpaceX’s several months as the company figure (ABC, 28 Aug; AP).

Musk, Q2 call (4 Aug 2026), on Flight 13: “This flight actually went incredibly well. The heat shield appears to be very robust.” He said he would “consider the heat shield problem solved at this point,” pending inspection of the floating ship, and “we do not see any technical obstacles at this point to achieving full and rapid reusability.” He did not address the booster hard splashdown in those remarks (SpaceNews; Q2 transcript).

Infrastructure: Flight 12 was the first from Pad 2 (OLP-2). Pad 1 is in retrofit. CFO Johnsen (Q2): company is “activating multiple launch pads at Starbase and in Cape Canaveral at Pad 39A and Pad 37.” Shotwell said in June that if Flight 13 went well the company might attempt the first orbital mission on Flight 14 and the first Florida Starship launch on Flight 15 (SpaceNews Flight 13). Florida flight remains a statement of intent, not a published NET.

HLS / Artemis (NASA, not SpaceX cadence): On 27 February 2026 NASA restructured Artemis: Artemis III (2027) is now a LEO test, intended to include rendezvous and docking with one or both commercial landers (SpaceX Starship HLS and Blue Origin), plus suit and systems tests. First crewed lunar landing is Artemis IV, 2028, with Artemis V also a 2028 landing if hardware is ready. Gateway development in its then-current form was paused (NASA release 26-022, 27 Feb 2026; GAO-26-108556).

Shotwell on the 4 Aug call, answering an HLS question: “Artemis III mission is next year. That’s where we will dock with the Orion spacecraft. We will follow that up with a direct-to-lunar cargo mission, uncrewed. And then — we want to put boots on the ground, boots on the moon in 2028.” Musk: Starship must be “super reliable for satellites before we put any people on board”; he expected a high launch rate to reach human-needed safety “probably by the end of next year” (end-2027) (Q2 transcript).

Still undemonstrated (critical path): on-orbit cryogenic propellant transfer between Starships; a ship catch; Block 3 booster catch/reuse; longer-duration orbital endurance; an uncrewed HLS lunar landing demo. (Orbital insertion demonstrated on Flight 14, 28 Sep 2026.) NASA OIG (report IG-26-004, ~March 2026) flagged HLS schedule risk, delayed CDR (then slated August 2026), and that SpaceX had notified NASA in fall 2025 it might miss the then-planned June 2027 landing date (NASA OIG PDF; SpacePolicyOnline). Whether CDR actually occurred in August 2026 is unconfirmed in sources reviewed for this file.

Mars: no uncrewed Mars Starship has flown. Public planning still describes uncrewed landers as TBA / later than the lunar critical path. A February 2026 Reuters item (cited via the public flight log) reported SpaceX delaying Mars plans to focus on the 2027 Moon sequence — treat as secondary unless re-read from Reuters directly.

Business / contracts: NASA HLS remains a firm-fixed-price milestone contract (historically Option A April 2021 $2.89 billion for Artemis III lander and Option B November 2022 $1.15 billion for a second landing / upgrades — widely reported NASA award values; not re-downloaded from NASA procurement pages for this update). Starship was added to NASA NLS II (March 2025, reported) as Category 1 / high-risk until orbital capability is shown — secondary. Space segment Q2 operating loss reflects Starship R&D (Johnsen).

Next milestone

1. Flight 14 — first orbital Starship + first operational-orbit Starlink V3 deployment. Musk on 4 Aug: tentatively end of August, and (pending FAA) a first ship tower catch. On 20 August he posted that the ship catch is now “in a few months,” and that the first ship reflight would be “either end of this year or early next” (Space.com, 20 Aug 2026; SpaceNews). NASA Administrator Isaacman (14 Aug) said he expected early September and then a sub-monthly cadence (SpaceNews). An 20 Aug airspace-manager briefing listed 15 September for Flight 14 (SpaceNews). NET is slipping; 15 September is a range-coordination date, not a SpaceX commit. Ship catch on F14 should be treated as slipped / unlikely. Fri 28 Aug: SpaceX posted a full-duration 33-engine Super Heavy static fire with the booster preparing for Flight 14 (SpaceX X; Space.com, 29 Aug). Mid-September targeting was still soft at end-August. Update 15–17 Sep: SpaceX now targets Flight 14 for Tue 22 Sep 2026, window opens 07:15 CDT / 08:15 EDT / 1215 UTC, Starbase Pad 2 (pending regulatory). First planned orbital Starship flight; deploy 26 Starlink V3; ~six orbits ~275 km; Ship Pacific splashdown ~10h; Super Heavy Gulf splashdown ~T+7 min; no tower catch this flight. SFN tracker: Ship 41 / Booster 21. (SpaceX Flight 14; Space.com 15 Sep; SFN). Update 17–18 Sep: SpaceX retargeted to as early as Mon 28 Sep 2026, pending regulatory approval (~six-day slip from 22 Sep). Mission profile unchanged in last full public package. (TeslaNorth 17 Sep; MarketScreener). Update 21 Sep: SFN — Super Heavy B21 rolled to Pad 2 late Sun 20 / on mount Mon; S41 not yet; FAA orbital mod still required (SFN 21 Sep). Update 23 Sep: S41 rolled Tue evening and stacked on B21 overnight; full stack on Pad 2; WDR expected 24 Sep (SFN 23 Sep; Space.com 23 Sep). Update 24 Sep: SpaceX completed wet dress rehearsal; still NET Mon 28 Sep pending FAA (Space.com 24 Sep). Update 26–27 Sep: FAA issued license authorization for Flight 14 launch and reentry on Sat 26 Sep 2026 (statement reported Sun 27 Sep by Aviation Week / Irene Klotz; Teslarati same). Window still Mon 28 Sep 07:15–08:30 CDT / 1215–1330 UTC; backups 29–30 Sep. S41 restacked on B21 Sat 26 after Fri destack. Mission profile unchanged; pre-liftoff at Mon 28 ~04:00 Zurich digest close. (Aviation Week 27 Sep; Teslarati 27 Sep; Space.com). Update 28–29 Sep: FLOWN SUCCESS. Liftoff ~1249 UTC Mon 28 (8:49 a.m. EDT / 14:49 Zurich). First stable orbit; 26 Starlink V3 deployed and contacted; early Hawaii splashdown ~1557 UTC; FAA no mishap investigation. (Space.com; Ars Technica; Spaceflight Now; Payload).
2. Hardware for F14: S41 restacked on B21 at Pad 2 (Sat 26 Sep after Fri destack). WDR complete 24 Sep (Space.com). 28 Aug full-duration 33-engine static fire remains the last company fire confirmation. FAA launch+reentry license CLEARED Sat 26 (reported Sun 27).
3. Propellant-transfer demo (depot + tanker): still on 2026 planning charts in the public log — timing unconfirmed; has not flown.
4. HLS: Artemis III LEO docking 2027; uncrewed lunar demo before Artemis IV 2028. Exact demo NET unconfirmed.
5. Musk cadence claim (4 Aug): “probably a year from now, we will be doing at least one flight a day, possibly more.” That is a CEO forecast, not a schedule.
6. Starbase Louisiana (Vermilion Parish). SpaceX 25 Aug: up to $100B Starship spaceport on a former Exxon Gulf site; fourth launch site; construction 2027, first launch 2029. LED: construction by end-2027, initial ops 2030. Musk video: “probably 10,000” jobs; LED: 3,000 direct / 8,100 indirect over 10 years. Full-build: five complexes, two pads each, propellant production, worker housing. Not a 2026 pad. (CNBC; TechCrunch).

Competition

• Blue Origin Blue Moon MK2 is the other NASA HLS provider. Under the Feb 2026 NASA architecture, either or both landers may support the 2027 LEO docking and 2028 landings (NASA; GAO-26-108556).
• New Glenn (Blue Origin) is the other U.S. heavy-lift reusable-class vehicle; grounded after a May 2026 pad explosion (see Falcon competition).
• China lunar architecture (Long March 10 / crewed lunar) is a geopolitical program; not expanded here.

Sources

• NASASpaceflight, Flight 13, 23–24 Jul 2026
• SpaceNews, Flight 13
• SpaceNews, orbital Flight 14 / Q2 call, 4 Aug 2026
• SpaceNews, F14 slip / no ship catch, ~20 Aug 2026
• Space.com, Musk 20 Aug catch delay
• Space.com, Super Heavy 33-engine static fire, 29 Aug 2026
• Ars Technica, Flight 13
• NASA Artemis architecture, 27 Feb 2026
• NASA OIG HLS, IG-26-004
• GAO-26-108556, NASA major projects
• Wikipedia list of Starship flights (secondary compilation; cross-checked against NSF/SpaceNews for 2026 flights)

Starlink

Includes constellation generations, launch cadence as a business, Direct-to-Cell / Starlink Mobile, Starlink Mini (terminal and V2 Mini satellites), and broadband competition.

Status (August 2026)

Subscribers / ARPU (company, as of 30 June 2026 unless noted):

• 12 million subscribers, doubled year-over-year, +17% vs Q1 (CNBC, 4 Aug 2026; Globe and Mail reporting on the print). SpaceX had also posted on X in early June that the count had surpassed 12 million (CNBC).
• Q2 net adds >1.7 million consumer subscribers (best quarter); Q1 1.4 million (Shotwell, Q2 call).
• ARPU $66/month, unchanged vs Q1, down from $85 a year earlier (CNBC).
• Service in 167 markets at Q2 end, with more activations after 30 June (Shotwell).
• Enterprise & government connectivity revenue +108% YoY; aviation still “less than 10% penetrated.” Q2 airline deals named: American Airlines agreement; Southwest, Virgin Atlantic, Iberia, Aer Lingus activated (Shotwell).
• Connectivity is the only profitable segment: Q2 $4.29B revenue, $1.66B operating income.

Constellation:

• Shotwell, 30 June 2026: ~10,200 operational Starlink broadband and mobile satellites; ~9,600 broadband delivering ~800 Tbps total downlink capacity (Q2 call).
• Spaceflight Now, 18/19 August 2026 Starlink 17-50 (24 sats, Vandenberg, B1097 flight 12): constellation a little more than 11,000 in orbit, a count that includes satellites that are not fully operational, failed, or preparing to deorbit (Spaceflight Now). Do not treat 11,000 as the operational figure.
• KeepTrack-class live catalogs around this week cite ~10.9k in orbit / ~10.5–11.0k working — secondary; the company number to use is Shotwell’s 10,200 operational at 30 June plus subsequent Falcon batches.

Generations in service:

• V2 Mini / V2 Mini Optimized remain the Falcon 9 production standard (batches typically 20–29 satellites). V2 Mini is the Falcon-fairing Gen2 bus (~800 kg class, E-band backhaul, lasers, ~4× V1.5 capacity per SpaceX’s own Gen2 note) (SpaceX Gen2 PDF).
• Starlink Mini also names the compact consumer user terminal announced 2024 (backpack-sized). Still a current product line; 2026 price/availability mix not pulled from starlink.com for this file.
• V3 (Starship-class): Flight 12 flew two modified V3s as cameras/inspectors (plus 20 simulators). Flight 13 deployed 20 functional V3s that completed a “speed run” (Shotwell: every satellite connected through every laser link) on a suborbital path and then reentered. No V3 is yet in operational orbit. Musk: V3 is “about an order of magnitude more capable” than V2; combined with ~10× more satellites, he described a ~100× bandwidth path. He said a “critical mass” of V3 is “on the order of about 1,000,” “approximately second quarter next year” (Q2 2027) (Q2 call; SpaceNews).

Direct-to-Cell / Starlink Mobile:

• First-generation D2C (orbital eNodeB) is in commercial use via MNOs. U.S. service with T-Mobile branded T-Satellite launched commercially 23 July 2025 (text, later data) — widely reported; not re-verified from T-Mobile’s site for this file.
• SpaceX has been rebranding the product as Starlink Mobile. Q2: new carrier partnerships SoftBank, NTT Docomo, Spark New Zealand (Shotwell; CNBC).
• Current system uses about 5 MHz; EchoStar AWS-4 / H-block (~65 MHz) transfer recently FCC-approved (Shotwell: “foundational competitive advantage”). Next-gen mobile V2 satellites (do not confuse with broadband V3) to start flying on Starship in 2027, with standalone Starlink Mobile service targeted end of 2027 (Shotwell, Q2 call / CNBC). She described a simplified “10× satellites × 10× spectrum ≈ 100×” capability step.
• Ground build-out: Shotwell said EchoStar spectrum has a terrestrial component and SpaceX intends small cells co-located with Starlink dishes rather than classic macro build. Capex for that build not disclosed.

Licensing / markets: UAE TDRA on 28 August 2026 granted Starlink a 10-year licence to operate and manage a public satellite telecommunications network and provide satellite broadband across the UAE (individuals, businesses, government, maritime, aviation). Residential service was already advertised in March 2026; The National (28 Aug) says Dubai and Abu Dhabi are currently at capacity (wait-list deposit). This is not a mobile-network / numbering licence and does not move Starlink Mobile / EchoStar dates. (The National, 28 Aug; Forbes Middle East, 28 Aug).

Launch-as-a-business: A large majority of Falcon flights remain internal Starlink. SpaceNews (May, CRS-34): company on a ~154-launch 2026 pace vs 165 Falcon 9 in 2025. Space.com: of 100 SpaceX missions YTD by 18/19 Aug, 97 Falcon 9, 1 Falcon Heavy, 2 Starship. Ars Technica (Aug 2026) reports commercial customers are being told Falcon manifests tighten after 2028, with Shotwell having previously discussed Falcon wind-down around 2030–2032 (Ars).

June 2026 consumer price change: CNBC says SpaceX added a $10 monthly kit/rental fee and raised some plan rates.

Next milestone

• Flight 14 Starship: first operational-orbit V3 deployment (Musk). Timing: SpaceX NET as early as 28 Sep 2026 (was 22 Sep; see Starship section).
• ~1,000 V3 on orbit: Musk pointed to Q2 2027 as the “critical mass” for a noticeable service step-change.
• Starlink Mobile next-gen sats / EchoStar integration: 2027; first standalone customers end-2027 (Shotwell).
• Continuing Falcon 9 V2 Mini batches every few days — routine, not a milestone.

Competition

Starlink remains the only LEO broadband network at ~10k operational spacecraft and 12 million subscribers. No competitor is in the same scale class.

Sources

• Q2 call transcript; CNBC Q2
• Spaceflight Now, 18 Aug 2026, >11,000 in orbit
• SpaceX Gen2 / V2 Mini note
• SpaceNews Amazon Leo FCC waiver
• Eutelsat OneWeb replenishment
• SpaceNews Telesat Lightspeed

Starshield / national security

Ops 27 Sep: USSF-385 launched 26 Sep 2026 1400 UTC from SLC-4E; B1100 → OCISLY. Third Space Force Vandenberg flight in ~16 days (after USSF-153 / USSF-259). Payload classified; Starshield-class LEO batch suspected by trackers, not confirmed by USSF. (Space.com 26 Sep; Teslarati 26 Sep).

Status (August 2026)

Starshield is SpaceX’s government product line: Starlink-derived buses with high-assurance crypto, sensing payloads, and government-owned constellations. SpaceX’s public product page describes three initial areas — Earth observation, secure communications, and hosted payload buses — plus laser terminals that can ride on partner sats (SpaceX Starshield).

What is flying vs what is branded:

• NRO proliferated LEO imaging: public reporting since NROL-146 (May 2024) has described Starshield buses launched in multiple NRO batches. NRO does not confirm contractors. Treat company identity as widely reported, not officially confirmed by NRO.
• DoD satcom used in the field today is largely commercial Starlink sold under Starshield-branded service plans and privileged features, not a dedicated DoD-owned comms constellation. (This distinction is from a SpaceNews Milsatcom interview with Space Force CSCO; article year not re-verified — do not hang 2026 dates on it.)

2026 contract awards (SpaceNews, Space & Missile Defense Symposium coverage, after the Q2 print):

• May 2026: U.S. Space Force $2.29 billion to SpaceX for the initial Space Data Network (SDN) backbone — secure LEO transport among sensors, C2, and weapons. Fully operational prototype targeted end of 2027.
• Days later, May 2026: Space Force $4.16 billion for the initial space-based Airborne Moving Target Indicator (AMTI) constellation (track aircraft from orbit).
• Late July 2026: Space Force $1.6 billion order for 18 Falcon 9 launches under NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1, to deploy Space-Based Sensing and Targeting sats through end of 2027 (acquisition completed in ~two months).
• Shotwell, Q2: “we won more than $6 billion in U.S. contracts in Q2, supporting major Space Force programs” for communications and sensing. SpaceNews: SpaceX’s first 10-Q grouped SDN and AMTI under Starshield / national security, “more than $6 billion in multiyear awards.”
• Space Force also awarded $615 million to Rocket Lab, Systems & Technology Research, and a third undisclosed company on a second AMTI task order to diversify suppliers (Col. Ryan Frazier).

SpaceX is therefore simultaneously bus manufacturer, optical-comms vendor, payload integrator, and launch provider for these architectures. Golden Dome / missile-defense framing is in the SpaceNews symposium piece; program politics are out of scope here.

NSSL remains a dual-provider (SpaceX + ULA) structure; Vulcan’s grounding (below) has already caused payload moves onto Falcon 9 (Ars Technica).

Next milestone

• SDN operational prototype by end of 2027 (Space Force schedule via SpaceNews).
• AMTI initial constellation deployment through 2027, using the 18-launch order.
• Ongoing NRO-class launches — manifests classified; cadence is visible only as named NROL Falcon missions.

Competition

• Traditional GEO satcom (WGS, AEHF, commercial SES/Intelsat/Inmarsat) vs proliferated LEO.
• Amazon Leo is explicitly in DoD “PLEO” discussions as a future commercial path (older SpaceNews architecture coverage).
• Rocket Lab / STR AMTI awards are the stated diversification play against a SpaceX-heavy sensing layer.
• ULA remains the other NSSL Lane provider but cannot fly Vulcan until the SRB investigation closes.

Sources

• SpaceX Starshield product page
• SpaceNews, SpaceX missile-defense / SDN / AMTI / $6B, Aug 2026
• Q2 call (Shotwell on >$6B Q2 U.S. contracts)
• Ars Technica launch-crunch, Aug 2026

Dragon / commercial crew / cargo

Status (August 2026)

Dragon remains NASA’s operational U.S. crew and cargo vehicle. Boeing Starliner-1 remains under review and is not in the 2026 ISS traffic plan as a firm date (NASA ISS 2026 flight-plan update, 1 May 2026).

Crew-12 (in progress): launched 13 February 2026, 5:15 a.m. EST, Falcon 9 / Crew Dragon from SLC-40, Cape Canaveral. Crew: NASA Jessica Meir (cmdr), NASA Jack Hathaway (pilot), ESA Sophie Adenot, Roscosmos Andrey Fedyaev. Docked Harmony zenith ~15:15 EST 14 Feb. Replaced Crew-11 (which returned 14/15 January 2026 after a medical issue). NASA Commercial Crew rotation #12 (NASA release 26-018).

CRS-34 (complete): launched 15 May 2026, 6:05 p.m. ET, SLC-40; docked 17 May; splashdown 17 June 2026, 5:11 a.m. PT off California. Cargo Dragon C209’s sixth flight (first cargo Dragon to six; Endeavour had already reached six crewed flights). ~2,948 kg cargo including STP-H11. SpaceX: sixth flight of this hull after CRS-22/24/27/30/32 (SpaceX CRS-34; NASA splashdown; SpaceNews).

2026 NASA Dragon manifest (four flights): Crew-12 (Feb), CRS-34 (May), Crew-13 (mid-September), CRS-35 (fall). SpaceNews (May) cited that four-mission year.

Private astronaut: Axiom / Polaris 2026 Dragon flights were not confirmed in sources reviewed for this file. Polaris III remains a Starship crewed concept, not a 2026 Dragon mission, and its status given Isaacman’s NASA role is unconfirmed.

Next milestone

• Crew-13: SUCCESS Thu 1 Oct 2026. Liftoff SLC-40 11:10 a.m. EDT (1510 UTC); Dragon Grace (C-213) / B1101. Crew: NASA Jessica Watkins (cmdr), NASA Luke Delaney (pilot), CSA Joshua Kutryk, Roscosmos Sergey Teteryatnikov. Docked ISS Harmony forward port 7:05 p.m. EDT (2305 UTC) — 7 h 55 min after liftoff, fastest U.S. spacecraft launch-to-docking in ISS history. Hatch opened 9:19 p.m. EDT. Crew-12 handover Sun 4 Oct (Meir→Dubrov 10:20 a.m. EDT). MOVED 3 Oct: undock NET Wed 7 Oct 1:05 a.m. EDT; splashdown ~Thu 8 Oct 11:25 a.m. EDT California (was as early as Mon 5). (NASA 3 Oct; NASA dock; NASA hatch; SpaceX Crew-13).

• NROL-97: SUCCESS Thu 1 Oct 2026 11:54 p.m. ET (0354 UTC Fri 2) from LC-39A. First NRO Falcon Heavy and first NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 national-security payload. Side boosters LZ-1 / LZ-2; center expended. Fairings from NROL-95; sides from Roman. Completes tripleheader with Crew-13 + Transporter-18. (SpaceX; NRO via ICN; Space.com).

• CRS-35: SUCCESS Tue 13 Oct 2026. Liftoff SLC-40 6:33 a.m. EDT (10:33 UTC / 12:33 Zurich). Cargo Dragon C211 4th flight; booster B1096 8th → LZ-40 (~7.5 min). >6,300 lb science/supplies incl. final IROSA pair (Redwire) in unpressurized trunk. Autonomously docks Harmony zenith Thu 15 ~11:00 a.m. ET (~52 h). ~1 month docked. (SpaceX; SFN). Prior NASA May note had >7,200 lb / fall timing — superseded by flown mission.
• Crew-12 return: undock NET Wed 7 Oct 2026 8:05 a.m. EDT (14:05 Zurich; was 1:05 a.m.); splashdown ~Thu 8 Oct 11:34 a.m. EDT (17:34 Zurich) off California (NASA 5 Oct) (weather/recovery dependent). (NASA 3 Oct).

Competition

• Soyuz remains the other ISS crew vehicle (MS-29 launched mid-July 2026 per NASA’s May plan / NSF headlines).
• Boeing Starliner: uncrewed Starliner-1 cargo still “under review” as of 1 May 2026 NASA update; not a 2026 crew competitor.
• Sierra Space Dream Chaser / Cygnus XL: Cygnus remains on the cargo manifest (CRS-25 NG targeted fall/winter 2026). Dream Chaser 2026 status not confirmed here.
• China Shenzhou/CSS is a parallel human program, not ISS-interoperable.

Sources

• NASA Crew-12 launch, 13 Feb 2026
• NASA ISS 2026 flight plan, 1 May 2026
• NASA Crew-13 event
• NASA CRS-34 splashdown, 17 Jun 2026
• SpaceX CRS-34 mission page
• SpaceNews CRS-34

Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy

Status (August 2026)

Cadence:

• SpaceX’s 100th mission of 2026 lifted off 18 August 2026, 9:01 p.m. PDT (19 Aug 04:01 UTC) from Vandenberg SLC-4E: Starlink 17-50, 24 satellites, booster B1097 flight 12, droneship Of Course I Still Love You. That was the 97th Falcon 9 of 2026, plus 1 Falcon Heavy and 2 Starship tests (Space.com; Spaceflight Now).
• 2025: 165 Falcon 9 and 5 Starship = 170 company flights; no Falcon Heavy in 2025 (Space.com). 2024: 132 F9 + 2 FH + 4 Starship = 138.
• Shotwell: 78 launches in H1 2026, 1,041 tons to orbit.
• 15 August 2026: two Falcon 9 orbital launches 38 minutes apart on opposite coasts — USSF-366 from California and Globalstar 2-R from Florida — shortest single-provider dual orbital pair reported (SatNews, 16 Aug 2026; SpaceX.com launches list).
• SpaceNews (May, at CRS-34): 57th orbital launch of 2026 at that point (56 F9 + 1 FH), implied ~154 full-year pace, below 2025’s 165 F9. Ars (Aug) similarly expects about 20 fewer Falcon 9 flights than 2025. Do not treat year-end 2026 as a known number.

Reuse:

• B1067 set a 36th flight record on 9 July 2026 (Starlink 10-42). Starlink 10-49 flew Tue 25 Aug 2026, 09:33 UTC (11:33 Zurich / 05:33 EDT) from SLC-40: 29 sats, 37th flight, ASOG landing. SpaceX.com does not print the serial; SFN/LL match B1067. Do not call this the 100th of 2026 (SpaceX sl-10-49; SFN live).
• Starlink 17-50 (18/19 Aug): 651st Falcon booster landing (Spaceflight Now).
• B1097’s April 2026 flight included the company’s 600th orbital-class booster landing (secondary recap).

Falcon Heavy 2026:

• ViaSat-3 F3, 29 April 2026, 10:13 a.m. ET, LC-39A — FH’s 12th flight since 2018, first FH in >18 months, ~6.4 t GEO sat, side boosters B1072 / B1075 to LZ-2 and LZ-40 (first FH use of LZ-40); center core B1098 expended (SpaceX mission page; Spaceflight Now; SpaceNews).
• Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope — LAUNCHED SUCCESS Sunday 30 August 2026, 7:26 a.m. EDT (13:26 Zurich), LC-39A. NASA RELEASE 26-071 (Jennifer Dooren, 30 Aug): Falcon Heavy from Kennedy LC-39A. Ground control at Goddard began receiving telemetry ~7 minutes after launch. Falcon Heavy performed as expected; observatory separated ~31 minutes into flight. After separating from the center core, the side boosters returned to the launch site for refurbishment (SpaceX mission page: LZ-2 and LZ-40). Solar panels and lower instrument sun shade deployed ~1 hour 23 minutes after launch. Three-month, million-mile journey to Sun-Earth L2. First images expected early 2027. Fourth NASA primary on Falcon Heavy. Isaacman: delivered ahead of schedule and on budget. Encapsulated 21 Aug; hangar 25 Aug; vertical Sat 29 Aug; LRR GO 28 Aug. This is the second Falcon Heavy of 2026 (after ViaSat-3 F3). Do not invent a new company-wide 2026 mission total. (NASA 26-071; Space.com; SpaceX roman).

Business: Space segment Q2 $962M revenue, still loss-making because of Starship R&D. Falcon remains the cash-launch workhorse and the NSSL + NASA crew/cargo vehicle. Ars: SpaceX has signaled it will wind down commercial Falcon as Starship takes over; customers report difficulty booking after 2028. Shotwell has previously cited Falcon operational life into 2030 or 2032. That wind-down is a stated direction, not a hard stop date.

Late July $1.6B / 18 Falcon 9 NSSL order (see Starshield) extends Falcon national-security demand through 2027.

Next milestone

• Roman / Falcon Heavy: FLOWN SUCCESS Sunday 30 August 2026, 7:26 a.m. EDT (13:26 Zurich), LC-39A. NASA 26-071 facts as above. Next NASA Falcon on the public manifest is Crew-13.
• Vandenberg 15-22 flew Wed 26 Aug 09:35 UTC / 11:35 Zurich (27 sats, 24th flight, OCISLY; serial B1082 from SFN/Space.com, not printed on SpaceX.com). Florida 10-49 flew Tue 25 Aug 09:33 UTC (29 sats, B1067-37, ASOG). SpaceX VP Launch Kiko Dontchev (25 Aug, via SFN): that pad-40 flight was the last planned Falcon 9 Starlink from Florida; future Florida Starlink on Starship; “~260 Starlink missions from the Cape” in seven years. (SFN 15-22 live).
• Next listed (SFN updated 27 Aug): Starlink 15-23 Wed 2 Sep 2026 07:46 UTC (delayed from 1 Sep 08:01 UTC), 27 V2 Mini, SLC-4E, B1063 35th flight, OCISLY. Starlink 15-24 Sat 5 Sep 2026 11:13 UTC (delayed from 4 Sep), 27 sats, B1088 19th flight, OCISLY. Matches SpaceX.com windows. No Florida Starlink on the upcoming list.
• USSF-259 FLOWN Thu 17 Sep 2026 03:07:56 Zurich (Wed 16 Sep 18:07:56 PDT), SLC-4E → OCISLY (~8.5 min). Classified NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 / TH-1; third Lane-1 in ~1 month after USSF-366 (15 Aug) and USSF-153 (10 Sep). (SFN; SpaceX). Booster B1097 13th flight = SFN attribution, not SpaceX.com HTML.

Crew-13 Falcon 9 NET 1 Oct 1510 UTC (SFN updated 20 Sep; NASA still early October; was 12 Sep). - Customer-launch crunch if Starship orbital ops slip (industry, not a SpaceX milestone).

Competition

Net: Falcon 9 is still the only high-cadence reusable orbital launcher. With Vulcan and New Glenn both grounded in mid-2026, Western commercial LEO deployment (Amazon Leo, AST, Telesat, etc.) is capacity-constrained, which increases near-term Falcon pricing power even as SpaceX tries to reserve future capacity for Starlink V3 / Starship.

Sources

• Space.com, 100th 2026 mission
• Spaceflight Now, Starlink 17-50 / 11k sats
• Spaceflight Now, B1067 36th flight, 9 Jul 2026
• SpaceX ViaSat-3 F3
• NASA RELEASE 26-071, Roman launch, 30 Aug 2026
• Space.com, Roman launch success, 30 Aug 2026
• SpaceX Roman mission page
• NASA Roman LRR GO, 28 Aug 2026
• NASA Roman FRR, 21 Aug 2026
• Ars Technica launch crunch, Aug 2026
• SpaceNews ULA Vulcan grounding
• SpaceNews Ariane 6 LE-03
• SpaceNews Neutron slip

Raptor, production, Florida pads, other 2026 lines

Status

Raptor 3 is the Block 3 / V3 Starship engine. It flew operationally on Flights 12 and 13 (33 on Super Heavy + 6 on Ship). Flight 13’s 16 July abort and 24 July booster landing-burn dropouts show Raptor 3 start/relight reliability is still a live engineering problem, especially on the booster.

Production/test (do not treat as an official rate):

• NSF McGregor cameras have shown Raptor 3 serials into the 200s (engine #201 called out as a first sighting). Recent two-week windows with 22 Raptor 3 firings have been reported by NASASpaceflight/Starpath trackers.
• A secondary April 2026 recap attributed to SpaceX updates claimed >600 Raptor engines produced (mix of generations) and >40,000 seconds on Raptor 3 — not independently re-read from spacex.com/updates for this file; mark unconfirmed as a current official figure.
• Johnsen Q2: SpaceX is “accelerating Raptor and launch vehicle production” and building Gigabays, plus Starbase pads and KSC 39A and 37 for Starship.

McGregor, Texas remains the acceptance-test site for Merlin and Raptor. Hawthorne still builds Falcon/Dragon/Merlin; Starbase builds Super Heavy/Ship/Raptor 3 line items.

Starlink manufacturing continues at high rate to feed Falcon batches of 20–29 V2 Mini Optimized plus V3 for Starship. Daily factory output not disclosed in 2026 sources reviewed.

Florida Starship: pads 39A (currently Falcon Heavy/Falcon 9) and 37 being activated (Johnsen). Shotwell (June): Flight 15 could be the first Florida Starship if the orbital sequence holds. Unconfirmed schedule.

Energy / turbines (Musk 29 Aug, via TeslaNorth 30 Aug): Musk said SpaceX casting turbine blades and vanes in-house can accelerate natural-gas turbines coming online by up to 18 months; Tesla and SpaceX are each racing 100 GW/year of solar production; natural gas still needed to bootstrap for several years. Business/engineering claim — not a verified plant permit. (TeslaNorth, 30 Aug).

Starmind / orbital compute: Musk on the Q2 call said Starmind AI satellites (Vera Rubin NVL72-class) expected to start launching next year (2027). CNBC: SpaceX–Nvidia collaboration on the payload. This is an AI/space hybrid line, not a 2026 flight program.

Next milestone

• Raptor 3 relight reliability sufficient for Block 3 booster catch (not on F14 as a stated goal after the Aug 20 catch slip; timing unconfirmed).
• Super Heavy for Flight 14: full-duration 33-engine static fire Fri 28 Aug (SpaceX X; Space.com 29 Aug). Ship 41 / Booster 21 remain tracker serials (early August); the Space.com piece does not print a booster number.
• First Starship from Florida — unconfirmed, possibly Flight 15+ if Shotwell’s June framing holds.

Competition

• Blue Origin BE-4 (New Glenn and Vulcan). Spaceflight Now 6 Aug 2026: Blue Origin identified an engine issue in the May New Glenn explosion; ULA said Blue will modify Vulcan’s (non-identical) BE-4s. That is a competitor-engine reliability event, not a SpaceX item.
• Chinese methalox engines on Zhuque-3 / LM-12A — LandSpace landing 19 Aug 2026 is the first commercial Chinese orbital booster recovery attempt success (headline); reflight not claimed.

Sources

• NASASpaceflight Flight 13 (Raptor abort / landing burn)
• Q2 call (Johnsen on Raptor production and Florida pads)
• Spaceflight Now, New Glenn / BE-4, 6 Aug 2026

Unconfirmed / do-not-use-as-fact

• Exact 22 August 2026 Starlink operational count (use 30 June company ~10,200 operational and 18/19 Aug >11,000 in orbit including non-operational).
• Exact 22 August 2026 SPCX share price / market cap.
• Flight 14 launch day (range briefing 15 Sep is not a commit; Musk’s end-August is stale).
• Flight 14 ship catch (Musk 20 Aug: “a few months”).
• First ship reflight (Musk: end-2026 or early 2027).
• Daily Starship cadence in ~12 months (Musk forecast).
• 1,000 V3 by Q2 2027 (Musk estimate).
• On-orbit propellant transfer in 2026 (planned, not scheduled in public FAA/NASA docs reviewed here).
• HLS CDR actually held in August 2026 (OIG had it as the then-plan).
• Uncrewed HLS lunar demo NET (public log says March 2027 — not NASA-confirmed).
• First Florida Starship flight number/date.
• B1067 flights beyond the 9 July 2026 36th flight; any 37th-flight claim.
• 2026 full-year Falcon count (pace comments only).
• Amazon Leo August on-orbit total (331 at 5 Jun waiver; 367 after 17 Jun Ariane 6; later Atlas/Falcon batches not summed here).
• OneWeb exact active count (Eutelsat: “over 600”).
• AST SpaceMobile 2026 satellite total.
• D2C satellite count (secondary trackers say 650+; not a company figure in the Q2 call).
• Raptor annual production rate and the “>600 engines / 40,000 s” April recap.
• Starlink Mini terminal current price/availability.
• Axiom or other 2026 private Dragon missions.
• Polaris III (Starship crew) timing.
• Altan as a current executive (he is not).
• Kathy Lueders as current Starbase GM (retired May 2025).
• NRO contractor confirmation for Starshield imaging.
• Live KeepTrack / Orbital Radar constellation counters as official.

Source hierarchy used

Preferred, in order: SpaceX IR / spacex.com mission pages, NASA, FCC (via SpaceNews/Ars reporting of orders), NASA OIG, GAO, SpaceX Q2 2026 call, SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Spaceflight Now, Ars Technica, Space.com, CNBC. Wikipedia / blogs used only as finding aids and labelled secondary where relied on for the 2023–2025 Starship table.